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2026 Refund Trends: Realizing the Benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

We are just a few weeks into the 2026 tax filing season, and the numbers coming out of the IRS are already telling a compelling story. Statistics released recently show a distinct upward trend in the average refund amount. Currently, the average check sits at $2,476—up from $2,169 at this time in 2025. That is a solid 14.2% increase, putting an extra $300 in taxpayers' pockets compared to last year.

While this is a positive shift, it is worth noting that it hasn't quite hit the $1,000 increase that some policymakers and pundits predicted. However, as an Enrolled Agent (EA) watching these returns process in real-time, I remain optimistic. It is still early in the season. As more complex returns are filed and processed, we expect these averages to fluctuate as the full impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) takes hold.

Infrastructure and tax changes impacting 2026 refunds

The Drivers Behind Bigger Refunds

The OBBBA brought about significant changes to the tax code. These new provisions are designed to lower taxable income through specific deductions and credits. Here is a look at the key factors we are seeing on returns right now:

Targeted Income Deductions

The new legislation specifically targets how certain types of income are treated, providing relief for workers in service and hourly sectors.

  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: This provision allows for the deduction of the "half" portion of "time-and-a-half" pay mandated by the FLSA. Unmarried individuals can deduct up to $12,500, while married couples filing jointly are capped at $25,000.
  • Tips Tax Deduction: For those in designated occupations where tipping is customary, up to $25,000 of "qualified tips" can now be deducted. Note that married taxpayers must file jointly to utilize this.

Important Nuance: These benefits are not unlimited. Phase-outs begin at a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of $150,000 for singles and $300,000 for joint filers. They are completely phased out at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively. Crucially, you do not need to itemize to claim these; they are available alongside the standard deduction.

Consumer and Family Tax Breaks

Beyond income adjustments, the OBBBA introduced deductions aimed at major purchases and family support.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you purchased a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, you may be able to deduct up to $10,000 in interest. The loan must be secured by the vehicle and cannot be from a friend or relative. This benefit phases out starting at $100,000 MAGI ($200,000 for joint filers).
  • Enhanced Standard Deductions: The standard deduction has jumped to $31,500 for married couples and $15,750 for singles. Additionally, the "Senior Bonus" provides an extra $6,000 for taxpayers over 65, regardless of whether they itemize.
  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit is now $2,200 per child. This benefit is available in full for joint filers earning up to $400,000 and single heads of household up to $200,000.
  • SALT Cap Relief: In a major shift, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has been raised from $10,000 to $40,000. However, for high earners with a MAGI over $500,000, this cap begins to decrease, potentially reverting to the lower limit.

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Why Refunds Are Higher: The Hidden Factors

Beyond the new laws, structural issues are influencing refund sizes. Many of these tax cuts were enacted mid-year, but the IRS did not update withholding tables immediately. Consequently, many employees had taxes withheld at the old, higher rates throughout 2025, leading to larger refunds now that the actual liability is calculated.

Furthermore, inflation adjustments to tax brackets have helped mitigate "bracket creep," ensuring that cost-of-living raises didn't inadvertently push taxpayers into higher tax rates. We also saw a portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) become refundable, meaning it can be paid out even if the taxpayer owes zero tax.

Navigating a Challenging Tax Season

While the refunds are promising, the administration of this tax season faces hurdles. The IRS has reported a workforce reduction of 25% since January 2025 and is managing a substantial backlog. We are seeing a decrease in returns processed by about 3.1% compared to this time last year.

This environment of complex new laws combined with reduced IRS capacity is exactly why professional representation matters. As IRS Tax Pros, we don't do bookkeeping or general accounting—that is by design. Our sole focus is solving tax problems and navigating IRS complexities. We are fully versed in every line of the OBBBA and are committed to ensuring your return is accurate and optimized.

If you are hesitant to file because of the complexity, or if you are worried about navigating the backlog, reach out to us. We are here to handle the heavy lifting so you can secure the refund you are entitled to.

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